Monthly Market Commentary – March and April 2026

By Dennis Karpenko, CFA

So far, 2026 has turned out to be a pretty volatile ride for investors as markets have had to deal with a wide variety of economic crosswinds. Mega-cap tech firms saw a widespread selloff, especially in software names, ongoing geopolitical concerns have been further exacerbated by conflict between the U.S. and Iran, and domestic inflation figures jumped on the back of rising oil prices.

Equities

Equity market volatility has been very pronounced so far. The S&P 500 was down around 7%, year-to-date, near the end of March, but has since rallied back and is now just under flat as of April 10th. Other indexes, such as in international and small-cap spaces, have exhibited similar swings this year.

On a sector basis, rising oil prices have given a prominent boost to energy stocks (up over 28% as of April 10th). Materials, industrials, and utilities round out the top four with returns of over 10%. In that same span, the consumer discretionary and financials sectors have performed the worst, with both down over 5%.

Despite all this volatility, one trend that has continued over from last year has been that of international outperformance. Where most U.S. large cap indexes are largely flat so far this year, both developed international and emerging markets are up (6% and 10%, respectively).

Fixed Income

Bond prices have seen a similar cycle to equities, with a recovery in pricing over the last week. So far this year, yields have largely moved higher. Notably, 10-year Treasury yields reached a high of around 4.4% in late March, a high point since July of 2025. As future inflation figures come out, it is possible to see a reversal in the downward trend that yields have been exhibiting over the last year and a half or so.

Corporate bonds have remained resilient despite macro shocks and rising base yields; spreads have continued to hold up, and liquidity remains strong.

Economic Recap

The Fed kept rates constant during its second meeting of the year, on March 18th. There is now only one more meeting this year, in late April, where the Fed Chair will be Jerome Powell. The Fed has made it clear that they are keenly observing the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, as coming inflation prints may be significantly impacted by rising oil/energy prices, although these effects are likely to be on a lag.

Other notable economic figures:

Disclosures

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks, including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation.