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Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index at All Time High

Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index at All Time High

| September 09, 2020
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U.S. economic data is beating forecasts and expectations at record levels. Citigroup’s U.S. Economic Surprise Index rose to new all-time levels this past week, more than tripling the previous high set almost three years ago. The index looks to measure economic data relative to forecasts, tracking a wide array of different indicators including employment data, housing data, retail sales, production and manufacturing numbers and more. Positive readings are indicative of stronger data versus expectations, while negative readings are indicative of weaker data versus expectations. The current record setting levels show that the economic data in the U.S. has been coming in much stronger than analysts have expected. The index crossed into positive territory, from an all-time low in April, and has been setting new highs ever since despite the coronavirus related restrictions that have partially hampered areas of the economic recovery. Despite the index registering unprecedented highs in data beating expectations, it’s important to remember that data beating expectations does not necessarily equate with the actual data being at all-time record levels. Regardless, the domestic economy has been faring much better than economists have predicted, a positive sign representative of a significantly faster and stronger recovery than was expected by most.

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